Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.253554 2.389976 2.534190 2.698651 2.881826 3.080536 3.313706
2025-03-23 2.069297 2.259023 2.469858 2.723906 3.025030 3.374929 3.818978
2025-03-30 1.916519 2.131704 2.378806 2.687937 3.070882 3.539139 4.171012
2025-04-06 1.799937 2.030251 2.301391 2.650644 3.098871 3.670654 4.484412
2025-04-13 1.691991 1.928607 2.212457 2.586409 3.079929 3.731523 4.701424
2025-04-20 1.641565 1.891933 2.198354 2.612007 3.175061 3.948110 5.161315
2025-04-27 1.607109 1.871633 2.201602 2.657689 3.297807 4.212414 5.730692
2025-05-04 1.575159 1.851725 2.202729 2.698587 3.414928 4.478847 6.348284
2025-05-11 1.522922 1.802483 2.161768 2.677549 3.439004 4.604114 6.746412
2025-05-18 1.477057 1.759093 2.125778 2.660135 3.465387 4.733533 7.173552
2025-05-25 1.433443 1.716552 2.088438 2.637721 3.481098 4.845327 7.587056
2025-06-01 1.392347 1.675555 2.051028 2.612426 3.489362 4.943899 7.992732
2025-06-08 1.359645 1.645178 2.027665 2.607497 3.531228 5.108860 8.587819
2025-06-15 1.339774 1.631359 2.026647 2.635619 3.628686 5.386039 9.518200
2025-06-22 1.302065 1.591543 1.986859 2.601985 3.619898 5.462685 9.985003
2025-06-29 1.266268 1.553138 1.947489 2.566699 3.605240 5.525654 10.435919
2025-07-06 1.224936 1.505772 1.893471 2.505815 3.541878 5.484705 10.592120
2025-07-13 1.210798 1.495980 1.893550 2.530086 3.629440 5.760900 11.761648
2025-07-20 1.202798 1.494412 1.905363 2.573378 3.754256 6.134253 13.422311
2025-07-27 1.193873 1.491106 1.914258 2.612114 3.873847 6.516775 15.363140
2025-08-03 1.169967 1.465510 1.888652 2.592191 3.880645 6.640865 16.398206
2025-08-10 1.148111 1.442267 1.865795 2.575696 3.892666 6.779355 17.592662
2025-08-17 1.126083 1.418188 1.840863 2.554458 3.893712 6.891281 18.756030